This weekend in Geneva, an interim deal concerning Iran’s nuclear program was reached between Tehran, the United States, France, Germany, China, Russia, and Britain. This deal is the first step in examining Iran’s updated stance on nuclear weapons. The new Iranian leader, President Hassan Rouhani, seems more open to negotiation than his predecessors, and the new Geneva deal may be the first indication toward friendlier international agreements on Iran’s nuclear program. In unveiling the deal to the Iranian public, Rouhani stressed mutual understanding between all powers involved and said, “Our approach was based on goodwill, and we hope they’ll deal with us the same way.” If course, the ultimate effectiveness of the bill will be determined by how domestic operations and international relations will play out as the 6-month terms are put in place.
In return for easing of economic sanctions, Iran agreed to enrich uranium only to below 20% purity, or just below weapons-grade. Its existing stockpile is to be converted to harmless oxide. Additionally, only half of their 19,462 uranium plant centrifuges can be in operation at one time. They have agreed to freeze advancements on their new plutonium reactor at Arak and even invited UN experts to inspect the plant. If all these terms are met, the other six world powers drafting the deal will ease economic sanctions amounting to around $7 billion.
With the economy looking more promising due the reversal of sanctions, many Iranians are overwhelmingly in favor of the Geneva deal. Even though its terms are not going to be implemented until late December or January, a more positive economic outlook overall has led to the Iranian rial gaining 3% on the dollar just in response to news about the agreement. There is still a small number of Iranians wary of giving up too many aspects of their nuclear program, which is a source of national pride. But overall, the economy dictates public sentiment. And for many Iranians, this deal couldn’t come sooner in their depressed economic situation.
Still, the international community must go into this accord with some amount of skepticism. Just because Rouhani is a bit more open than previous leaders does not mean he will be ready to completely erase Iran’s nuclear program or give other drastic concessions in response to international pressure. He makes it a point that any final terms in nuclear talks reached, present or future, will be based on agreement between all parties involved. Nothing goes into a treaty without Iran approving it. Already, Israel is completely dissatisfied with the deal. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu slams it as “a historic mistake” and accuses it of giving Tehran all the power.
And that may be so. Iran originally stressed the fact that upcoming nuclear talks (after the 6-month deal runs out) will be a balanced conversation between all powers involved. But what if some powers are not involved? Iran has issued an ultimatum, shortly after the Geneva deal was announced, that it will not participate in any nuclear talks involving Israel. Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said at a press conference, “Today, the biggest threat to the international community is Israel, and we never stay in a room where this regime’s representative is present.”
Even though this weekend’s Geneva deal is a promising step towards the West, Iran’s relationship with its Middle Eastern neighbor Israel is still severely strained. And unfortunately, these two countries need to reach some sort of mutual understanding before more drastic deals concerning Iran’s nuclear program are put into place.
