By Hank Bartholomew
As of this writing, the United States is a matter of hours away from the election of the forty-seventh president of the United States. In many states, in-person voting has already begun, and it is clear that the 2024 Presidential Race is drawing to a close. This is where things stand just prior to the biggest decision of the last four years.
FINAL APPEALS
November 5th has arrived, and both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris have put their campaigns into overdrive, campaigning throughout America. Harris, for her part, has been devoting her attention to states near the Midwest, with frequent rallies in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. She has also maintained a focus on potential Southern swing states, including South Carolina and Georgia. This emphasis on Georgia is nothing surprising: President Biden just narrowly nabbed Georgia in 2020 by a margin of 0.23%.
What has been particularly interesting about Harris’s rallies is the guests and speakers she brings to them. The incumbent Vice President has been traveling and speaking with former First Lady Michelle Obama as well as former GOP congresswoman Liz Cheney. The spouse of the former vice president has emerged in recent months as perhaps the most outspoken critic of Trump within the Republican party, labeling the former president as “unstable and depraved and cruel.” Cheney’s support likely serves two purposes for Harris. First, Cheney’s presence may help to win over conservative voters who do not support Trump but are unsure of Harris. Additionally, this collaboration with a high-profile conservative helps Harris promote her argument that she is the best choice to unite a polarized country. An incredible fundraising effort–over one billion dollars–has also allowed Harris a wide variety of television and radio ads, allowing her to maintain a national effort.
Trump has taken a relatively similar route in his rallies, but the former president has focused his efforts on different states than Harris. Trump has made the Rust Belt his focal point, with visits to Nevada, Arizona, and Colorado. Interestingly, all three of these states were Joe Biden victories in 2020. Trump’s rally invitees are often quite different from Harris’s; the forty-fifth president’s guest’s have included tech billionaire Elon Musk, UFC president Dana White, and GOP speaker of the House Mike Johnson.
What has made Trump’s rallies of particular interest is his rhetoric. While always an undeniably powerful public speaker, the former president’s tone throughout these rallies has changed. In 2016 and 2020, Trump’s rallies were often rowdy and loud, but there was still some semblance of calm and confidence. Now, these rallies are far more extreme. Perhaps this is simply the result of escalation of Trump’s views, but rallies have become far more intense. Expletives and foul language are far more common, with Harris being labeled as a “sh*t” president. Trump has continued to claim that Harris’s former romantic relationship with a former San Francisco mayor was responsible for her political rise, doubling down on these claims with a series of explicit remarks. Part of Trump’s appeal to voters has always been his brash and unforgiving demeanor. But as this election draws to a close, he has shifted to more profane and vulgar statements. The purpose of this change is unclear; perhaps it is a strategy to win over voters by speaking honestly. Or perhaps it is just Trump speaking freely.
STRATEGIES
The battle lines have already been set for some time now, but as the race nears its end, attacks and claims have only intensified. Here are the primary arguments of both candidates.
Harris has shied away from her own record and focused primarily on Trump. She has blasted him over his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, his new economic plans, his racist rhetoric towards immigrants, and Project 2025, an extreme right-wing plan to radically reshape American government and society if Trump wins. But overall, Harris has argued Trump is a danger, a true threat to those he disagrees with. Trump’s rhetoric towards immigrants–labeling them as “blood thirsty criminals” and “the worst people,” as well as his claim that immigrants have “bad genes”–has bolstered Harris’s argument of Trump’s racist beliefs. This argument is not new; President Biden has repeatedly stated that Trump’s Charlottesville comments–in which he referred to a group of violent white supremacists and Neo-Nazis as “fine people”–were what forced him to run in 2020. But Harris has also argued that Trump poses a danger to those besides immigrants–those who oppose him in general. She has argued that he would be an authoritative leader, with limited checks and balances. Harris cites Trump’s repeated references to “the enemy within” and his repeated claims that he will prosecute and punish his political opponents, including the Bidens, as well as his claim that those who criticize the Supreme Court should be “put in jail.” It’s frightening rhetoric; many have compared it to language used by dictators such as Mussolini and Stalin, and others have raised concerns that this language is not fitting for a man meant to lead all of America. Harris has capitalized on this, firmly claiming that Trump’s reelection poses a dire threat to American democracy and freedom.
Trump has not necessarily shied away from these allegations; he has denied that he wants to be dictator, but has continued to label aspects of the government as corrupt, and maintained that he will prosecute the Bidens. Trump’s current strategy hinges on many of the same issues he built a campaign off of in 2016, only now adopted to this current situation. He depicted Harris as Biden’s “border czar,” and criticized her as weak on crime and immigration, arguing that she allowed “animals who are going to kill us or eat our pets or eat us” into the country. Immigration has been a central theme of this campaign, and Trump has leaned on it to portray himself as the only option to a current crisis, claiming falsehoods about immigrants murdering American children.
But Trump has also begun to question the very foundation and credibility of American democracy, continuing to refuse to admit that he lost the 2020 election and issuing claims that he fears this election will also be “unfair.” The motive here is unclear; some claim that Trump is identifying real and important problems with American democracy, while others suggest that these claims are an attempt to lay the groundwork to deny election results if Trump is to lose.
TIPPING POINTS
For Harris, the ability to win over a percentage of former Trump voters may be enough to give her the edge to reach 270. With the race split so cleanly, just a fraction of Trump’s base may be enough. This could be enough for Harris to win a few crucial swing states that traditionally vote red, such as North Carolina and Nevada. It’s a strategy not much different from what President Biden successfully used in 2020.
For Trump, minority voters hold the key to his re-entry to the White House. Black and Asian voters have long been a very important liberal demographic, and swaying these voters could be what it takes for Trump to win. These votes could be enough to propel the former president to victory in states such as Washington.
S
The election has not ended yet. Anything is possible. The only thing the most specific and accurate polls can suggest with confidence is that the election will be incredibly close. Likely, it may come down to a few hundreds of thousands or even thousands of votes. The aftermath and fallout are uncertain as well. But what we can say with confidence is that in a matter of moments, the United States will be forever changed.
