By Ryan Chou
As of October 17th, there are 16 days to go until Americans finalize their votes in arguably the most important election in 160 years. So, how do things look right now?
Every pollster, pundit, and voter has at least had the idea of another “October Surprise” cross their minds. In 2016, it was James Comey investigating Hillary Clinton’s questionable emails and Trump’s infamous 2005 tape containing inappropriate and explicit language. In 2012, it was a once-in-a-millenia superstorm wreaking havoc on the East Coast. And in 2008, the unemployment took a turn for the worse and Obama’s half-aunt was revealed to be living as an illegal immigrant in the United States. So, what has 2020 had in store? Well, most of it has involved Trump. From the New York Times releasing tax returns showing him paying only $750 in taxes for two years to his super-spreader COVID-19 event at the White House Rose Garden that infected Trump, Melania, and dozens of close Trump officials, the polls have not responded kindly to these events. Albeit the evidence is more questionable to most here, emails were apparently dug up that showed Hunter Biden’s ties to Ukraine.
For all we know, there could be another surprise in the making, but for now, let’s just see what all those events have amounted to. Adding in the First Presidential Debate, where most voters saw Joe Biden as more appealing, according to RealClearPolitics, Biden’s lead has gone from 6.6 points on September 30th to 10.3 points on October 11th. Granted, it has gone down a few points since, but his advantage in the past few weeks has not been this big since June. For reference, at her biggest lead in October, Hillary Clinton was only up by 7.1 points, and her lead sunk below 3 points several times in the last few weeks before the election. But these are national averages; what about the states?
In Florida, which has always been a hotly-contested battleground state in the 21st century, Joe Biden is leading by 4 points according to the FiveThirtyEight average. Was FiveThirtyEight wrong in Florida four years ago? Yes, but not by much. They predicted Hillary Clinton winning Florida by 0.6 points, when Trump ended up winning by 1.2 points. Even if this 1.8 point swing to the right is accounted for, FiveThirtyEight shows Joe Biden’s lead large enough to avoid an upset in Florida like 4 years ago. With 29 electoral votes, Florida is crucial for the Trump campaign, but it may not be for Joe Biden. Biden is leading in multiple other battleground states, which include states that were considered comfortably red in 2016.
In 2016, Trump won Georgia by 5 points. Democratic candidates in the past have not focused on Georgia due to it being a part of the “Deep Red South.” But Georgia is one of many states that Joe Biden has tightened the race in. In fact, FiveThirtyEight shows him taking the lead with just over two weeks to go. He is currently up by 1.2 points. Granted, this is a very tight lead, and it is entirely plausible that the polls are off by a point or two, but Trump will likely need to reallocate resources he needs to have in the Rust Belt that narrowly carried him to victory in 2016 to the Deep South.
Another Southern state to keep an eye on is Texas. This state went to Trump by a solid 9 points in 2016, and with 38 electoral votes, it is the second largest electoral prize in the country. Texas had always been considered a solid red state, but that may not be the case this time around. FiveThirtyEight shows Trump with a slight advantage of 1.4 points, but Texas is one of the few states where Democrats actually overperformed in 2016. This race is definitely tight, and without a state as large as Texas, Trump will likely be unable to win re-election.
In the Midwestern states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, Joe Biden has been maintaining consistent leads in the range of 6-8 points for the last few weeks. And in Iowa and Ohio, it is a dead heat between Trump and Biden. All 5 of these states went to Trump in 2016, and they were all crucial to his decisive win over Hillary Clinton. And if the polls have corrected their errors from 2016, where Trump’s turnout was generally underestimated, there may not be much left that Trump can do to climb back from such a large deficit.
There is not much time left for a drastic swing in the polls, and it appears that there is a clear advantage for Joe Biden going into the final stretch of the 2020 campaign season. He is holding strong leads in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, and in Texas, Georgia, Ohio, and Iowa, he has tightened the polls to the point where they show leads of less than 1.5 points. But for all we know, the polls could be missing it again, especially in the Rust Belt, like they did in 2016.
