By Will DeMartinis
It’s that time of the year again where Red & Blue duke it out to hoist the grand prize of Congressional control. Yes, the all-important and Twitter-loving Midterm elections are upon us. This year’s matchup is the same old same old; it’s been the same since the 1850s. In the Blue corner, The Democrats, vying to break the tradition of the president’s party face planting into oblivion, and maybe, just maybe, retain control of Congress. In the Red corner, The Republicans, seeking to follow in 2010’s & 2014’s blowout red waves & forcing Congress into a shakeup not seen since 2018. In this article, we’ll be taking a look at the defining races that may decide this year’s midterm election.
The Backdrop: Midterm elections almost always go against the incumbent president’s party. In 2018, it was the blue wave that swept through the house, giving democrats a 235-199 seat majority & control of the house for the first time since 2010. In 2014 & 2010, it was just the opposite; resentment towards Barack Obama and the Democrats allowed Republicans to dominate house control for 8 straight years, even going as far as to give them their largest house majority since the 1940s. This year, things started off grim for the Democrats. Increasing inflation & gas prices, flailing approvals for president Joe Biden, and a stagnant Congress all contributed to a Republican-leaning environment. But, just as Republicans looked to repeat 2010 & 2014’s successes, a political bomb exploded in early June: the overturning of Roe v. Wade, the Supreme Court decision that guaranteed a woman’s right to have an abortion. Immediately, shockwaves were felt throughout the political world. Women were energized, largely in favor of the Democrats, who saw an immediate improvement in the national mood. This, coupled with increasing numbers for Joe Biden and an economy that looked to be stabilizing, fueled the Democrats’ comeback in the national polls. These factors also combined for what may be the greatest testament to Democratic success; wild over-performances in Congressional Special Elections. Where do you even start? There’s Pat Ryan’s surprise win in NY-19, a Biden +2.2 District that polls had Republican Marc Molinaro winning anywhere from 3-8 points, and the Alaska Special election that saw Democrat Mary Peltola defeat Republican & former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin (yes, that Sarah Palin than ran for VP back in 2008) by a margin of 51.5%-48.5%, becoming the first Democrat to hold the seat in 50 years. All of these combined influence today’s Midterm environment, which is a whole story just on its own.
Today’s midterm election looks radically different from what it would have been just months ago. Right now, FiveThirtyEight gives Democrats a 71% chance to hold the Senate & a 30% chance of retaining house control – incredible numbers for the incumbent party this late in the election. For reference, Republicans had 20% to hold the house at this time in 2018. The Senate is being fought in multiple key states, including Georgia, Florida, Nevada, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and North Carolina. Those states sound familiar? That’s because they are all swing states on the presidential level. In Pennsylvania, incumbent Lieutenant governor John Fetterman (D) looks to have the edge against TV personality Dr. Mehmet Oz (R). In Wisconsin, it’s a battle between another lieutenant governor, Democrat Mandela Barnes, and incumbent Republican senator Ron Johnson. In Florida, it’s rising star Val Demmings for the Democrats vs. the Republican favorite, Marco Rubio. Nevada pits incumbent Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto in a fiery race for reelection against Republican Adam Laxalt. All these races could go either way. Right now, it looks like you’d rather be a Democrat than a Republican running in many of these races, especially in states like Georgia, Nevada, New Hampshire, Arizona, and Pennsylvania; these are all states that voted for Joe Biden and look to have the Democrats as the champs. But, these are just the numbers today. Republicans still have plenty of time until November, and anything can happen in that span that may change the tide irreversibly back towards them. But, as of now, the Democrats seem poised to have an out of the box election, one where instead of an embarrassing loss, they actually may gain some seats in the senate and hold the house. But, Republicans are still favored in the house election, and the Senate is still a closely divided battleground for control. That’s been your Midterm quick fix, but there’s so much more than this simple summarization. Trust me, Pennsylvania alone has too many stories (Ever gone shopping for Crudite at Wegners?).
