By: Jack Stewart
As the NFL season comes to a close, so does the league’s Honors Ceremony. Taking place on February 6th, voters from the Associated Press (AP) will award players and coaches on their accomplishments throughout the regular season. Here are my predictions for the eight categories being presented this year:
Most Valuable Player (MVP): Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills QB
The MVP is the main award of the ceremony and the most prestigious individual award in professional football. It’s typically given to the most successful quarterback in the league, which leaves two prime candidates for the award: Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. Jackson, a two-time recipient, has put up what’s arguably his best statistical season. He threw for 4000 yards in a season for the first time in his career, an important benchmark for quarterbacks, while also throwing for a 10:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. With those achievements, he bests Allen in both categories. Voting for the awards was also cast before the Bills’ playoff win over the Ravens, meaning the only head-to-head matchup factored into voters’ decisions was Jackson’s victory over Buffalo in week four. Despite all of this, Allen is still my pick and the general consensus decision to win this year’s MVP. Members of the voting body may suffer from something known as voter’s fatigue, which is a common pattern of people getting tired of voting for a player in repeat seasons. Jackson’s two previous MVP awards, including last year’s, compared to Allen’s lack of any awards, may motivate voters to switch things up and cast a vote for Josh Allen this year. He also won more total games than Lamar Jackson, despite Jackson playing with a far superior roster, having one of the best in the league. Lamar Jackson was backed by a top ten defense, while the Bills’ defense placed in the bottom half. The Ravens accounted for nine total Pro Bowlers, while the Bills only had one besides Allen. Factors like this show why Josh Allen has been so crucial to the Buffalo’s success this season and why he’s deserving of this award. Despite Jackson’s statistical greatness, the value that Josh Allen has brought to the Bills warrants him this year’s MVP.
Offensive Player of the Year (OPOY): Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia Eagles RB
This 2025 winner for the OPOY is one of the clearest of any categories at this year’s ceremony. Typically given to the best running back or wide receiver, Eagles running back Saquon Barkley seems like a lock for the award. In his first year in Philadelphia, Barkley put up an incredible 2000-yard rushing season, a feat accomplished only eight other times in NFL history, while also putting up an impressive 15 touchdowns. The benchmark for a “good” season by a running back is reaching the 1000-yard milestone and scoring roughly 10 touchdowns, which shows just how incredible Barkley’s performance this year was. While many other players in this category have had great seasons, the overall dominance of Barkley makes him a lock to receive the OPOY this year.
Defensive Player of the Year (DPOY): Patrick Surtain II, Denver Broncos CB
This year’s DPOY is one of the hardest categories to predict, with no clear front runner as of now. With no favorite, most people either lean towards Pittsburgh Steelers LB T.J. Watt or Denver Broncos CB Patrick Surtain II, who I believe is more likely. Most of the buzz that Watt has received is due to name recognition, not due to personal achievements. Watt has actually played one of his worst statistical seasons, recording his lowest sack total ever for seasons where he didn’t miss time due to injury. Surtain, on the other hand, has had the best year of his career and has been a valuable weapon to Denver’s secondary. Up through December, Surtain registered an allowed quarterback rating of 39.1, which was a historic mark. To put that into perspective, if a quarterback were to throw the ball straight into the grass on every single play, he’d receive a rating of 39.6. This means that he’d be better off throwing at the ground than throwing to a receiver being covered by Surtain. Metrics like this, along with Surtain’s four interceptions and a forced fumble, give him a convincing case for this season’s DPOY.
Offensive Rookie of the Year (OROY): Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders QB
As the second overall pick in last year’s draft, former LSU Tiger Jayden Daniels had an immense amount of pressure on his shoulders. He was drafted to be the key piece in a rebuilding Washington squad, one that had only made the playoffs twice in the last 10 years and who totaled a 4-13 record in the previous seasons. Despite the stacked odds, Daniels excelled in his rookie season and led the Commanders to a greatly improved 12-5 season. This rookie class proved to be one of the best in a long time, with fellow nominees Bo Nix and Brock Bowers also putting up historic numbers, yet flipping the outlook of an entire franchise the way Daniels has done is such a rarity that it warrants him to be this year’s OROY.
Defensive Rookie of the Year (DROY): Jared Verse, Los Angeles Rams LB
Coming out of a generational Florida State squad, Jared Verse was one of the most exciting defensive talents in years. Yet during the build-up to the 2024 draft, Verse’s draft stock plummeted. It wouldn’t be until pick 19 of the first round when the Los Angeles Rams selected Verse to help fill the gaps left behind by the recently retired future Hall of Famer Aaron Donald. With big expectations to live up to, Verse performed just as well as scouts initially predicted him to, finishing as a Pro Football Focus top ten edge rusher. Verse placed ninth among all defenders in the league in terms of overall grade and fourth in pressures. His main competition is Philadelphia Eagles cornerback Cooper Dejean, who has been almost equal to Verse this season. Both players would be equally deserving, but for defensive awards like the DROY, voters have tended to favor edge rushers like Jared Verse over cornerbacks like Dejean, making Verse a more likely recipient this year.
Comeback Player of the Year (CBPOY): Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings QB
If one player has embodied what it means to have a “comeback” this season, it’s been Sam Darnold. Since being taken third overall back in 2017, Darnold was almost immediately labeled a “bust” and spent all of his career up until this point being bounced around between teams. With injuries to their newly drafted rookie quarterback J.J. McCarthy, the Minnesota Vikings would be the next team to start Sam Darnold. For what was supposed to be a placeholder quarterback, Darnold took the chance he was given by Minnesota and ran with it, having one of the best quarterback seasons in the league in 2024. Last season, Darnold started one game for San Francisco and threw for 297 yards on the year, yet this season he flipped that, starting all 17 games and throwing for 4319 yards. His performance was the most unexpected thing to happen this season, and the trajectory of his career was completely changed. Many point to Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow and Buffalo Bills safety Damar Hamlin as likely winners, but Darnold’s narrative and journey throughout the 2024 season encapsulate everything a comeback player of the year is.
Coach of the Year (COTY): Dan Campbell, Detroit Lions
Hailed as one of the best coaches in modern history, Dan Campbell had managed to achieve the impossible: make the Detroit Lions good. As arguably the worst franchise in the NFL, the Lions’ history has been characterized by poor management and player development. Dan Campbell was another hopeful hire by Lions ownership in an attempt to save their team from the seemingly endless cycle they were caught in. Against the odds, Campbell not only managed to succeed but thrive, leading the Detroit Lions to the number one overall seed for the first time in their history. They were nearly perfect throughout the regular season, mainly due to Campbell’s leadership. Another prime candidate is Kevin O’Connell of the Minnesota Vikings, who checks a lot of the same boxes that Campbell has. He turned a 7-10 Vikings team into a 14-3 powerhouse that’s tied for the second-best record in the NFC. Despite only tallying three losses, two of those losses happened to come at the hands of Dan Campbell’s Lions, which definitely favors Campbell. Besides support for O’Connell, the main argument against Campbell stems from the Lions recent misstep in the playoffs, falling unexpectedly to Washington, which has severely damaged Campbell’s reputation and led many to believe he’d be the incorrect choice for COTY. That game’s outcome, however, has no impact on the award as the voting is done before the playoffs start. Without this stain on Campbell’s resume, his 2024 season looks almost spotless, and he seems like a definite favorite to be this season’s coach of the year.
Assistant Coach of the Year (ACOY): Ben Johnson, Detroit Lions
Along with Saquon Barkley for OPOY, Detroit Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson seems to be the only other “lock” for an award this season. In tandem with Dan Campbell, Johnson pioneered a seemingly unstoppable Detroit Lions attack that finished first in total offense. They finished with a yards-per-game total of 521, which triumphed over a second-place Baltimore Ravens squad, who finished with a comparatively low 440. Johnson made a name for himself as one of the brightest young minds in football, which recently landed him the job as head coach of the Chicago Bears. Through both his recent promotion and stats, his impact and greatness are evident, and he is an easy favorite to be this year’s ACOY.
