By Will DeMartinis
Recent poll numbers have suggested that Republicans fortunes have seen an upswing in major swing states as election day draws ever closer. According to FiveThirtyEight’s deluxe model–which uses polls, expert ratings, fundraising, and other numbers to determine their results–Democrats chances have fallen from a high 71% chance to win the Senate & 32% to win the house to 55% and 19% respectively. These numbers have fallen for a number of factors.
In Nevada, Republicans seem to have taken the lead in both the Governors and Senate election, both gains for Republicans.
Pennsylvania, the hotly contested race between John Fetterman and Mehmet Oz has seen Oz close the polling gap; however, it’s important to note here that Oz has yet to sustain a lead in Pennsylvania, and his September ad buy (and Cash advantage) is wearing thin. These are potentially troubling signals for Oz to continue the improvement of his political fortunes. However, this notion is entirely based upon new poll numbers (many of which come from Republican leaning pollsters).
It can also be mentioned that most of these gap closings are due to Republican-leaning undecided voters coming home to roost in the party they call home. However, that alone can’t be understated. This Midterm is also seeing record-high voter interest & turnout (when compared to other midterms), making this election unpredictable, thus increasing the range of poll numbers in every direction.
So, to conclude, are Republicans coming home? Absolutely.
Is it unexpected? Pretty much, although that alone can’t be underestimated. So far, though, the Senate looks like a tossup (still leaning Democratic, just barely) and the House looks like you’d rather be a Republican than a Democrat (never count anyone out though). This whole idea, as I previously mentioned, also solely relies on polls, which, as we know, can be wrong. That’s been your Midterm quick fix with election day just two weeks away.
