By Alex Marinidies
Prospective Republican nominee Jeb Bush is facing trouble in Iowa. That trouble is not former president George W. Bush (Jeb’s brother). It’s the governor of the neighboring state of Wisconsin, Scott Walker.
Walker is another potential Republican nominee, and has a record as a “true blue” (or maybe red is a more appropriate color) conservative. He is more popular in Iowa then Bush, both because of his brand of grass-roots Republicanism and because of the proximity of Wisconsin to Iowa, the state where the first presidential caucus is held, and where winning (or at least coming in close second) is seen as essential to having a chance for the nomination.
The Governor is so popular in the state that one of Iowa’s most important pro-Bush workers greets visitors with “welcome to Scott Walker’s Iowa!”
This underdog attitude is factoring into Bush strategy, however. To his advisors, it is not essential for him to win in Iowa. He will probably come in second, and that wouldn’t be a death blow even in a normal campaign. It will be completely understandable if he comes in second in a state sure to be won by Walker, who is a near-favorite son (think of him as a favorite neighbor). The Bush campaign will be far from over in that scenario.
If Bush pulls an upset win over Walker, that will be an even greater victory. Walker’s viability will be damaged as a nominee if he can’t even win the caucus as a favorite neighbor, and Bush will prove his abilities as a campaigner and as a candidate. Should the more moderate Bush win there, it will also prove that one doesn’t have to be an extreme conservative to win Republican primaries. To put it in the words of one important Bush advisor, “If we lose in Iowa, it’s fine… If Walker loses in Iowa, he’s done.”
Basically, many of Bush’s staff view the Iowa race is a win-win. The only losing scenario is if Bush comes in third, which is unlikely in a diverse but mostly amateurish potential Republican nomination field.
The biggest challenge Bush faces in Iowa is deciding how much of his funds to throw into the state. He wouldn’t want to waste precious campaign money by throwing it all away on a state he could lose, but if he spends too little money, it could reduce his chances of a victory or close second. If he skips Iowa altogether, though, it could seem like he’s ignoring the state, which could very well hurt his chances at victory in other states.
So far, the race is far from certain, and if Bush is able to walk the fine line in Iowa, he could very well prove his viability as a national candidate–but if he fails at this stage of the race, he could very well be out for good.
