By Will DeMartinis
America’s celebrated tradition of democracy was once again carried out last Tuesday in what was a wild, depressing, and sometimes outright confusing midterm election season. Not to be outdone by 2020, this election cycle came complete with Crudites, Trump, good ol’ Joe Biden, Democrats, and Republicans, Otherwise known as “America’s best reality TV show except everything actually matters.” Before I address the big question, I should give a little pretext to this entire deal. In the weeks leading up to the election, I wrote two separate articles. One was about the rarely good environment Democrats had leading into the Midterms from the summer to what was then September. Then, I wrote about how polls were seemingly showing a Republican bounce in key swing states that were turning the environment towards the norm- The “wave”.
Well, election day was nothing short of entertaining, to say the least. Early on in the day, some experts predicted the “Red Wave” was coming to fruition, that 2010 & 2014 would be re-incarnated due to Joe Biden’s poor approval numbers and the perceived discontent with inflation and the economy in general. Others thought that, perhaps in the vein of the 2012 election, polls were underestimating Democratic turnout, and because of that, just maybe, the Democrats might have a better than expected midterm. What actually happened you ask? I like to call it the Red raindrop.
The Senate
The senate was absolutely viewed as the more winnable chamber for Democrats vs. the House, and that was proven when the Nevada Senate race, between incumbent Democrat Catherine Cortez-Masto and her Republican opponent, former Nevada Attorney general Adam Laxalt was called for Masto, giving Democrats their 50th seat in the senate- enough to retain a majority. As of now, the U.S Senate makeup is 50-49 Democrats, with the only outstanding race being the Georgia runoff between incumbent Democrat Rapheal Warnock and famed football star turned Republican senate candidate Herschel Walker. In that race, Democrats are viewed as the favorites due to a lack of interest from Republicans due to the fact that the Senate has already been decided, whereas Democrats are perceived as more motivated to turn out and deliver a 51st seat for their party. The biggest race of the night was Pennsylvania, which was a seat held by Republican Patrick Toomey- who announced his retirement last year, making this race an open senate race in what is one of the most hotly contested states on the Presidential level. For the Democrats, their candidate was the former mayor of Braddock and Lieutenant governor of Pennsylvania John Fetterman. For the Republicans, famed TV personality Dr. Mehment Oz. Pennsylvania’s senate race quickly became a food-fight, and I mean that literally. In one of the most wild moments of the election season, Dr Oz traveled to a grocery store in Pennsylvania for a campaign video (exciting stuff). In that video, which at first glance appears normal, he tries to tie Joe Biden to the rising prices of vegetables- vegetables to make Crudite. See, if you don’t know what Crudite is, you’re not alone, I didn’t know what it was either. Crudite is the fancy word for a vegetable platter by the way. Oh, and uh, Dr Oz was shopping at a “Wegners” grocery store, which does not exist. And how many of you tend to make your veggie platters with Asparagus, a full head of broccoli, carrots, salsa, guacamole, and tequila? If you’re reading this and thinking I’m making it up, I’m not. This really happened and was posted. Not to mention the other stuff in this campaign, including John Fetterman’s stroke, the recovery from that stroke, the whole Dr Oz = Living in New Jersey thing, etc. etc. So, with that in mind, what actually happened in this chamber defining race? John Fetterman would come out on top in Pennsylvania by roughly 5 points, a huge win for the Democrats in what could be their 51st Senate seat. Other races I have yet to touch upon include Arizona, where Mark Kelly (D) defeated Blake Masters (R) and New Hampshire, where Maggie Hassan (D) defeated Don Buldoc (R)- Both those races ended up assisting the Dems. to Senate control as well
Governors & the House
The house was viewed as the more vulnerable chamber for Democrats due to redistricting and the general composition of the house. As for a quick rundown of the house, Republicans have won a narrow majority, and house composition looks to be settling somewhere between 213-215 for Democrats and 222-220 for the Republicans. So, did the Republicans win the house? Yes, but by a WAY smaller majority than anybody probably would’ve predicted had you asked them before the election. This leaves the house speakership in a real shadow, as the speaker in waiting Kevin McCarthy may have trouble fishing the votes he needs to become speaker of the house from the more right wing elements of the party. Time will wait to tell the tale of the house. Governors wise, it was a pretty good night for Democrats. Only one incumbent lost, that being Democratic governor Steve Sisolak in Nevada. Despite his loss, Democrats gained 3 other governorships in Arizona, Maryland, and Massachusetts, With all three of those being states where moderate Republican incumbents retired- leaving those states open and ripe for the pickings by Democrats. That, plus Democrats winning every state in the northern Rust Belt of Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania, and holding a tighter than expected New York governorship (Seriously, Pennsylvania was more Democratic than New York this election). These electrons left the overall composition of Americas governorships 24-26 for the Republicans, narrowing from the aforementioned 22-28 majority they had previously.
What’s to take from all this?
Roe vs. Wade had a huge effect on the election. In states where abortion was on the ballot, Democrats turned out and won (See Michigan for example). In other states, ones where Abortion was decided (and also states that tended to vote more Democratic), Republicans made gains (New York, for example). The only exception to this is Florida, where Ron DeSantis clobbered former governor Charlie Crist by a whopping 20 points. Which leads to the final point: 2024. 2022 is over baby, 2024 is here. And by that, I mean that Donald Trump announced his 2024 bid for the White House about 45 minutes ago as of the time of writing this. Will Trump take the Republican reins again and lead them to victory? Is Ron DeSantis the Republican party’s future? Are we getting Joe Biden vs Donald Trump 2.0? Is another Democrat going to be nominated because Bidens too old? Are squirrels the future of bubble gum? Now that 2022 is over, we have all those questions to be answered. So just sit back, relax, indulge in some Crudite and sing Christmas carols, because 2024 is happening…it is HERE.
