Image credits: https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2020/nov/16/war-ethiopia-locust-swarm
Written by Amanda Ojeda
Tigray refugees arrive at the banks of the Tekeze River that lies on the Sudan-Ethiopia border, on Wednesday December 2nd. Photo taken by Nariman El-Mofty.
For the past month, the Tigray region, which lies at the northernmost part of Ethiopia, has been a violence ridden area. The rising tensions between the government in Addis Ababa of the Prime Minister of Ethiopia, Abiy Ahmed, and the ruling party of the Tigray region, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), has been cause of many outbreaks of violence and suffering of civilians.
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed declared in early November that fighters loyal to the TPLF attacked a federal military base. Since then, federal troops have been sent to Tigray in order to overthrow the TPLF. The TPLF has denied this statement, saying it was a concoction of Ahmed as justification of sending military troops there. From then on, the violence in the region has escalated. Ahmed stated in a televised broadcast that the Ethiopian military had bombed Tigray, destroying much of the weaponry of the region’s capital of Mekelle. The statement was made days after the alleged attack on the federal military base. Only days after the televised broadcast, Amnesty International confirmed hundreds dead due to a knife and machete attack in the town of Mai-Kadra. However, the group responsible for the attack remains unknown at the time of writing.
Ten days after the start of the conflict, on November 14th, the conflict surpassed Ethiopia’s borders. Tigray had fired missiles at the city of Asmara in Eritrea. The Tigray people claim to have launched the missiles after Eritrean troops were allegedly helping their long time enemy, the federal Ethiopian forces.
In the war caused by a border dispute between Ethiopia and Eritrea that took place mostly in 1998-2000, Tigray was the leading force of Ethiopia. Though it raged in the late 90’s and early 2000’s, it was only declared over in 2018 by Abiy Ahmed. This peacemaking effort won him the Nobel Peace Prize. Pleas of protecting the civilians and to deescalate the situation, have been responded to by the Prime Minister guaranteeing their safety. Humanitarians argue that promise is almost impossible to fulfill since in a conflict, like this one, casualties are almost inevitable.
“As long as troops are here fighting, we will take any legitimate military target and we will fire, said Tigray regional President Debretsion Gebremichael. He continued by saying, “We will fight them on all fronts with whatever means we have,” referring to the conflict as a “full-scale war”. The regional President would not disclose information on the number of these long-range missiles fired at Asmara, but there is said to be at least three. Another attack on Asmara occurred on either the 27th or 28th of November, also by the TPLF. At the same time in late November, the Prime Minister announced that military operations in Tigray are officially over after the army seized Mekelle, the capital of Tigray. However, fighting between the two groups still continues and the effects of this conflict will greatly exceed the end of these military operations.
Many claims have been made about the Tigray conflict nearing the line of a civil war. Seeing that Tigray has a powerful military of an estimated 250,000 troops, civilians fear that if they enter a war, it will be long and bloody.
This potential civil war between the TPLF and the Ethiopian Prime Minister would have great affects not only on the civilians of the country and its neighbors, but also by fracturing a key U.S. security ally. The TPLF once had great influence over the ruling coalition of Ethiopia, but the Tigray regional government and its strong military departed last year after Ahmed merged it into the Prosperity Party. Abiy Ahmed created many reforms to decrease the Tigray region’s power. Leading to the Tigrayan government’s objection to the election postponement, which has extended Ahmed’s rule by another year. The Tigrayans held an election anyway this September, but the vote was not acknowledged by Ahmed.
Another downside to the possibility of civil war would be the altering of the strategic Horn of Africa. The Horn of Africa includes the countries of Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, and Somalia.
The details of the conflict are very vague because of the government-imposed communication blackouts on the larger parts of Ethiopia, including Tigray. Therefore, many casualties have been reported, but specific numbers are unknown. Many Tigrayans have already fled the region into Sudan, seeking refuge from the heavy violence. About half of these refugees are children.
Large swarms of locusts destroy the crops of Ethiopia, leading to over a million of people in need of food assistance. Photo taken by Yonas Tadesse.
Payton Knopf, a senior adviser at the U.S. Institute of Peace said, “Given what we’ve already seen in terms of refugee outflows, there’s every reason for folks to be pretty concerned.” Currently more than 45,000 people have fled from Ethiopia to Sudan. To add on Knopf says that Ethiopia could experience “what could be one of the largest refugee exoduses we’ve ever seen…No matter who is responsible for the initial provocations or escalation, clearly it’s a threat to international peace and security.” Other countries have also been angered at how quickly the conflict is escalating and the attempts at internationalizing the conflict.
“War is meaningless,” said Tigrayan refugee Fabrik Tessafay. “This is genocide, it seems to me. This is genocide, to destroy Tigray and Tigray people.”
Nearly a million people have been displaced and put great strain on local humanitarian services. In Tigray, about 2.3 million children have been denied humanitarian services for over a month. This has increased the poverty and starvation that already is very prominent in the region.
The Tigray Conflict has also impacted Ethiopia and Sudan on how to handle the rising cases of COVID-19. Refugees living in the crowded camps of Sudan have very little to no access to PPE, or tests and treatments. However, many of them are facing struggles such as starvation, heat, and dehydration. These difficulties along with worrying for their families in areas of the deadly attacks, have made the pandemic a mere afterthought.
The issue that rises for Sudan is whether or not they can keep their open borders policy. If their borders close, those fleeing from Tigray will be forced to go somewhere else or stay in the dangerous region. If they remain open, cases have a good possibility of rising, worsening the pandemic’s state in Sudan.
Adding onto the conflict, Ethiopia, and the Horn of Africa in general, has been suffering decimating crops as swarms of locusts kill off people’s main sources of food. The UN called this the “worst locust swarm in 25 years.” This depletion of crops due to the locusts may have also contributed to the large number of refugees fleeing to Sudan.
The Prime Minister of Ethiopia has announced that the Tigray conflict is over, but the fighting between the groups continues. Long-term effects due to the over 45,000 refugees fleeing the country, nearly 1 million people displaced, and 2.3 million children denied humanitarian aid have only just begun.
