2016 Presidential Elections Prospects

By Ananya Nrusimha

With only one year before the 2016 elections, prominent Republicans and Democrats are beginning to take the first steps towards candidacy.

Candidates must be at least 35 years old, be a United States citizen by birth, and have resided in the United States for at least 14 years.  Once they decide to run, candidates must also raise money, increase visibility, and form an exploratory committee before the election.  An exploratory committee must come up with the candidate’s platform; come up with speeches, campaign slogans, and ads; get endorsements from prominent politicians; hire staff and volunteers; and determine the candidate’s chances for winning the presidency. The last hurdle candidates must cross before they can begin full-fledged campaigning is filing a Statement of Candidacy form with the FEC (Federal Election Commission) and forming a formal campaign committee that must file a Statement of Organization with the FEC.  Candidates usually file these papers once they form an exploratory committee. Therefore, if a person has formed an exploratory committee then that person will almost certainly be a candidate for presidency; the exploratory committee provides the candidate with an escape if they decide not to run at the last minute.

Right now, a total of five people are officially running for President.  Former college football coach Robby Wells, conspiracy theorist Jeff Boss and known glitter-bomber Vermin Supreme are all vying for the Democratic Party’s nomination.  Retired engineer Jack Fellure is the only official candidate on the Republican ballot right now and pastor Terry jones is currently the Independent Party’s only candidate.

Only two politicians (Republican former governor of Florida Jeb Bush and Democratic former senator Jim Webb) have formed exploratory committees. However, many prominent political figures have expressed interest in running.  Former senator and Secretary of State Hilary Clinton, former vice president Joe Biden and senator Elizabeth Warren are all strong contenders for the Democratic nomination.  Jeb Bush, New Jersey governor Chris Christie, Kentucky senator Rand Paul, Texas senator Ted Cruz and Florida senator Marco Rubio will all be Republican candidates to watch in 2016.  Former candidates such as Rick Santorum, Herman Cain, and Newt Gingrich could also join the ballot.

Of the three aforementioned potential Democratic candidates, Clinton is probably the safest candidate for Democrats to back. Both Warren and Biden may prove to be too fiery for the Democratic powers-that-be. Biden also has an unfortunate tendency of inadvertently making statements that prove damaging.  In a recent speech at the Democratic National Committee’s Women Leadership Forum, he praised Republican Bob Packwood, a former senator from Oregon who resigned due to sexual assault charges in the 1990’s.

Jeb Bush is currently the most moderate potential Republican candidate, but this could make it difficult for him to get endorsements from his party.  However, more conservative candidates like Ted Cruz may have difficulty appealing to the general population.  The disparity between conservative primary voters and more moderate general election voters and the plethora of potential candidates make predicting the Republican nominee difficult.